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Is a serious, far-reaching global climate agreement possible? What kinds of policies, and what coalitions among countries, might form the basis of such an agreement? How might the vastly divergent interests of different countries around the world be bridged to bring them together around such an agreement? This Challenge will give you a chance to examine these questions through your own research and a class role-playing exercise.
Table 1 gives crucial comparative indicators on these countries, including commitments under Kyoto, relative contributions to global warming and relative wealth. Following an initial Accord reached in Copenhagen in December 2010 that resulted in commitments by a number of countries to undertake efforts to reduced greenhouse gas emissions (https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf), a new agreement was reached in December 2015 in Paris. In that agreement, each country committed to an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to global reductions by 2025 or 2030 (http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php). Tables 1 and 2 give crucial comparative indicators on these countries, including INDC commitments under the Paris Agreement, relative contributions to global warming and relative wealth along with a general overview of each country’s situation.
Our exercise will be set in 2023, the year of the first “stocktake” under the Paris Accord, and the start of negotiations for a subsequent agreement. For purposes of this exercise, we will assume that Joe Biden was elected U.S. President in 2020, and that the U.S. House and Senate are now under the control of a Democratic majority (Commentary on what difference this election makes will be welcome throughout the exercise, in class discussion postings as well as in regular postings).
submit a posting of 150-300 words on India:
1.What long-term geopolitical threats to state security (e.g., wars, civil wars, or regime break-up or collapse) might climate change pose for your country? A useful assessment of global security threats was prepared by the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analysis in 2007 (link). In light of these threats, what long term strategic goals should your country pursue in negotiations?
In postings on each issue, consider its implications for the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution your country submitted as part of the Paris Agreement. These documents can be downloaded from the UNFCCCC website at: <http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php>. Also consider arguments about environmental justice (e.g., Shue) and their role in your decision.
We fast forward to the first “global stocktake” in 2023. This will be an opportunity for each country to reconsider the position it took under the Paris Accord, and renegotiate the treaty. This should be done in light of an objective assessment of whether your country is on track to meet its Paris Accord INDC targets (as of 2023). Consider what elements you would like to add for the period after 2030.
Post a statement of 250-400 words on your country India
2. National targets for greenhouse gas reductions for the next decade or two (to 2040 or 2050)
What specific overall targets will you agree to?
Will you be willing to incorporate that obligation into an enforceable legal treaty obligation (note that, in the Paris Accord, none of the country targets are enforceable in this way)
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